ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns

Author(s): 
Manmeet Ajmani, Vishruta Choudhary, Avinash Kishore and Devesh Roy
Organization(s): 
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

In this discussion paper, IFPRI assesses food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, the paper finds subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, the paper reveals that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, the paper identifies trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. The paper also highlights unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade.

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